Wednesday 15 July 2020

No decrease in global CO2 concentration during the early COVID-19 era

At Mauna Loa, Hawaii, since 1960, the CO2 concentration is measured. 

Around 1960 the CO2 concentration was about 315 ppm (parts per million). In 2020 the concentration has increased to a level of about 415 ppm. Generally, it is believed that this CO2 increase is caused by anthropogenic emissions ('human caused' emissions) and is the main reason for global warming.








Fig 1 CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa, 1960-2020

Note: the 'sawtooth' pattern you see is caused by seasonal influences (the presence and absence of the green parts of trees/vegetation).

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels have dropped dramatically. It is estimated that the global CO2 emissions dropped with an average of 17% starting April 2020. Peaks of around 26% have also been noticed.
However, in the most recent graphs we do not see a decline in CO2 concentrations at all:




Fig. 2 Last 2 years

CO2 is a so called well mixed gas that spreads within a few weeks in the atmosphere. But even after a couple of months after the start of the corona wave, we do not see major changes in the Mauna Loa CO2 concentration trend.

Other global CO2 monitoring laboratories show the same behaviour as the Mauna Loa laboratory with respect to CO2 concentration.

One can consult the Mauna Loa data here:

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/graph.html

This might be a good time to adjust the CO2-prediction models based upon the data gathered in the early corona period. The contribution of anthropogenic CO2 emissions to natural CO2 emissions might be far less then we thought. Administrations should be more reluctant with spending trillions on projects that might reduce CO2 emissions.
The most common greenhouse gas is water (water vapor/clouds). The effect of water as a greenhouse gas might be underestimated; Although the GWP ('global warming potential') of CO2 is much higher than that of H2O, the presence in the earth's atmosphere of CO2 (0.038%) is so much smaller than that of H2O (0.5%..7%) .

14 comments:

  1. You are a climate denier. Shame on you. Oil polluter. Skimmer.

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    1. No offense, I am just showing 2 graphs from a public website..

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    2. Het is jammer dat als we kritisch zijn dat je dan wordt weggezet als klimaatontkenner of racist, homofoob of wat dan ook, het slaat elke discussie dood. 73 Paul

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    3. Thanks Paul. Ja ik bekijk alleen maar wat grafiekjes. Conclusies mag iedereen zelf trekken.

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  2. In Canada we suffered from low temperatures caused by the climate change. You can not deny that!

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    1. I do not deny the global presence of more extreme temperatures lately.

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  4. Look at your own contry. The sea level in The Netherlands rises quickly. Be aware. Your theories are bad for mankind.

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  5. The average sealevel rise of the North Sea is 1 mm per year. That is 100 mm (10 cm) in one hundred year.

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  7. This type of articles are fake news. Hold your horses. Green investments are spoilt by you. How about your grandchildren man.

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    1. I am just showing 2 graphics from a NOAA institute. It is public information gathered by good scientists. It is up to you to derive conclusions. Maybe the trend will change coming weeks. I do not know. Do you ?

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  9. This comment has been removed by the author.

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